商海通牒

Morning.
早上好
This way please.
请走这边
He’s already in there waiting for you.
他已经在里面等你们了
Excellent!
好极了
Please sit down.
请坐
Welcome everyone.
欢迎各位
I must apologize for
我很抱歉
dragging you all here at such an uncommon hour,
在这个时间还召集大家开会
but from what I’ve been told,
但据我所知
this matter needs to be handled urgently!
有件事情亟待处理
So urgently, in fact,
既然这么紧急
it probably should have been addressed weeks ago.
不是本该在几周前就着手解决吗
But that is spilled milk under the bridge!
但事已至此 于事无补
So, why doesn’t somebody
那么 谁能说一说
tell me what they think is going on here?
现在到底是什么情况
Well, Mr. Tuld. As I mentioned earlier,
图德先生 正如我之前所说
if you compare the figure at the top page 13…
如果把13页上部的数据和
Jared, it’s a…just speak to me in plain English.
贾德 别故弄玄虚 简单点说
OK.
好的
But I’d like to speak to the guy who put this together.
但我想听整理这份东西的那个人说说
Mr. Sullivan is it?
是苏利文先生吧
Does he speak English?
他会说英语吗
Sir?
您说什么
I’d like to speak to the analyst
我想听那个理清了这堆烂摊子的
who seems to have stumbled across this mess.
分析人员跟我说一说
Certainly, that would be Peter Sullivan. Right here.
当然 是这位皮特·苏利文做的
Oh Mr.Sullivan. You are here! Good morning.
苏利文先生 原来你在 早上好
Maybe, you could tell me what you think is going on here.
你能不能告诉我现在是什么情况
And please speak as you might to a young child,
就把我当成一个一无所知的孩子来讲
or a golden retriever.
或干脆就是只金毛犬
It wasn’t brains that got me here.
你要知道
I can assure you of that.
我可不是靠聪明坐到今天这个位置的
Sir. As you may or may not know I work for Mr.Rogers,
您好 我是罗吉斯先生手下的职员
as an associate in the
在风险评估与管理部门做助理
risk assessment and management office at MBS.
主攻抵押贷款证券化
Please, just relax, stand up. Tell us in clear voice,
放松 请直接站起来大声告诉我们
what is the nature of the problem.
真正的问题到底是什么
Well as you probably know
您可能知道
over the last 36 40 months the firm has begun
在过去的三四年中 我们公司
packaging new MBS products;
一直在打包销售按揭抵押证券产品
that combine several different traunches
我们把不同风险级别的投资资产
of rating classification in one tradable security.
打包成一个产品出售
This has been enourmously profitable, as I imagine you noticed.
您应该也知道 这种交易一直获利颇丰
I have.
没错
Well the firm is currently doing
公司每天都大量的
a considerable amount of this business every day.
进行这种产品的交易
The problem which is I guess why we are here tonight,
当下咱们遇到的问题是
is that it takes us, the firm, about a month
公司往往要花一个月的时间
to layer these products correctly.
来正确地为这些产品进行风险评级
thereby posing a challenge from a risk assessment standpoint.
这样的话 风险评估方面就面临一个挑战
And Mr. Sullivan that challenge is?
什么挑战呢 苏利文先生
We have to hold these assets
我们持有这些资产的时间
on our books longer than we might ideally like to.
比预期的还要长
Yes.
是的
But the key factor here is, these are essentially just mortgages,
但问题的关键是 这些标的资产大都是抵押贷款
that has allowed us to push the leverage considerably
与其他情况相比 财务杠杆很容易被推高
beyond what you might be willing or allowed to do;
甚至超出我们的意愿或交易限制
in any other circumstance, thereby
这就使得
pushing the risk profile without raising any red flags.
风险预警机制失效
Now, thank you, sit down.
好了 谢谢 请坐
What I am guessing, your report here says;
我想你的报告的意思
give me some rope here,
让我顺一下思路
what I am guessing, it says is that..
我想你的意思就是
considering the, shall we say?
仔细想想 怎么说好呢
Bumpy road, we’ve been on the last week or so.
我们从上周起就踏上了一条不归路
But the figures your brilliant co
那些比你资深比你牛逼的同事
workers up the line ahead of you had come up with..
琢磨出来的数学玩意儿
don’t make much sense anymore;
屁用都没用了
Considering what’s taking place today?
依照今天的状况是这样的吧
Actually not taking place today…
其实不只是今天
but what’s already taken place over the last two weeks.
这种状况已经发生两周了
So, you are saying , this had already happened?
所以你的意思是 状况早就发生了
Sort of.
算是吧
And Mr. Sullivan, what does your model say that that means
苏利文先生 你的模型对于在座的各位
for us here?
意义何在
Well, that’s where it becomes a projection.
这个模型是个预期
But, ummm.
但是
You’re speaking with me Mr. Sullivan.
苏利文先生 跟我直说无妨
Well… sir…
先生
If those assets decrease by just 25 percent,
如果那些抵押贷款资产的估值
and remain on our books.
哪怕只下降25%
That loss
这损失
would be greater than the current
也会高过
market capitalization of this entire company.
现在整个公司的市值
So what you’re telling me…
那么
is that…
你的意思是说
music is about to stop,
音乐即将终了
and we are going to be left holding…
我们手上的资产马上就要变成
‘the biggest bag of odorous excrement’
在资本主义史上
ever assembled
最大的
in the history of capitalism?
一袋粪土
Well sir, I’m not sure I’d..
先生 我可能不会这么说
put it that way, but let me clarify…
但让我用您的比喻
using your analogy.
来解释一下
What this model shows,
从这个模型来看
is the music, so to speak, just slowing,
这段所谓的音乐 只是放缓了节奏
If the music were to stop, as you put it,
要说音乐即将停止的话
then this model would not be even close
这个模型就不仅是现在的样子
to that scenario, it would be considerably worse.
它会比现在还糟糕百倍
Let me tell you something, Mr. Sullivan.
我跟你说 苏利文先生
Do you care to know, why I’m in this chair with you all?
你想不想知道为什么我能坐到现在这个位置
Why I earn the big bucks?
为什么我能赚大钱
Yes.
您说
I’m here for one reason
只有一个原因
and one reason alone.
仅此一个
I’m here to guess, what the music might do, a week,
我的工作是去推测在未来的一周 一个月甚至一年里
a month, a year from now.
音乐的旋律
That’s it!
仅此而已
Nothing more.
再无其它
I’m standing here tonight…
今夜 我站在此处
I’m afraid that
可惜
I don’t hear a thing.
什么旋律都没听见
Just silence!
只有一片死寂
So, now that we know that
既然我们知道
the music has stopped,
音乐嘎然而止了
what can we do about it?
那对此有什么对策呢
Mr Cohen, Ms Robertson,
科恩先生 罗伯逊女士
I’m afraid, I think
我认为
this is where you are supposed to step back in.
现在该是你们发言的时候了
Lord knows we’ve relied enough on Mr Sullivan tonight.
苏利文先生今晚的贡献已经够多了
What do you have for us?
你们有何高见啊
What have I told you
当年你们刚入行的时候
since the first day you walked into my office?
我是怎么和你们说的
There are three ways to make a living in this business.
干这行有三种谋生之道
Be first, be smarter or cheat.
出手快 脑子好 会耍赖
Now, I don’t cheat.
如今 耍赖的事我不做了
And although I like to think,
虽然我相信
we’ve some pretty smart people in this building,
我们之中有些人非常聪明
it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first.
但是先下手为强还是最简单的做法
Sell it all…today!
全卖了 今天之内