大空头

We’re gonna crunch the numbers like harder…
请你们快离开
I need you out of here.
好的 马上
Of course. One second.
是 我们这就走
Yes, ma’am. We’re going.
我讨厌这样浪费时间
Oh, God. I hate this. This is a total waste of time.
拜托 能不能放松点
Oh, come on. Would you relax?
城外45分钟车程就有个住♥宅♥区
There’s a housing development 45 minutes outside town.
马克让我们先去查查看
Mark wants us to check that out first.
我希望路上有古巴餐馆
Well, I hope there are some Cuban restaurants on the way there.
我听说迈阿密的古巴菜很棒
Because I heard the Cuban food is amazing in Miami.
别跟我叽叽喳喳抱怨痛苦
Please don’t be chipper in the face of me being miserable.
真的会让我讨厌你
It really makes me hate you.
想吃东西怎么能叫叽叽喳喳
How is wanting to eat good food being chipper?
有人吗
Hello?
有人在家吗
Hello?
这些房♥子能卖♥♥多少
What do these go for?
四十二万五千一栋
$425,000 each?
你好 有何贵干
What’s up, man? What do you want?
你好 我正在调查
Hello. I’m surveying
拖欠房♥贷超过90天的贷款人
mortgage owners who are over 90 days delinquent.
我要找哈维·哈普西
I’m looking for a Harvey Humpsey.
你找我房♥东的狗干嘛
You want my landlord’s dog?
你的房♥东
Your landlord filled out
用狗的名字申请了房♥贷吗
his mortgage application using his dog’s name?
看起来是的
I guess so.
等一下 那个混♥蛋♥没有还贷款吗
Wait, has that asshole not been paying his mortgage?
可我一直有交房♥租啊
‘Cause I’ve been paying my rent.
是的 他拖欠贷款超过90天了
Well, yeah, he is over 90 days delinquent.
说真的
Seriously, man,
我是不是得搬走了
am I gonna have to leave?
可我刚搞定孩子上学的事情
‘Cause my kid just got settled in school, man.
你好吗
Hey. How are ya?
我叫肯
My name’s Ken.
你是肯吗
You’re Ken?
你应该跟你的房♥东谈谈了
Um, you should talk to your landlord about that.
对不起 我没有更多信息了
I’m sorry, I don’t have any more information.
但是你…
But you, um…
祝你过得愉快 再见 肯
You have a great day. See ya, Ken.
到处都是书
There’s books everywhere!
到处都是书
Books everywhere?
说真的 我们会有事吗
Seriously, man, is everything gonna be okay?
你应该给他打电♥话♥
You should… You should call him.
给他打个电♥话♥
You should give him a call.
这不是我的错 我交房♥租了啊…
It’s not my fault, dude. I’ve been paying…
你好
Hello!
看起来走得很急啊
Looks somebody just left.
看 他们就把电视拿走了
Look. All they took was the TV.
这很反常
It’s weird.
他们连台面都没有清理
They didn’t even clean out the counter.
上帝啊
Oh, God.
这里就像切尔诺贝利
It’s like Chernobyl.
这里有上百栋房♥子吧
There’s like a hundred houses.
真正住在这里的可能四个人都不到
There can’t be four people living here.
-他妈的 -见鬼
– Oh, fuck that! – Shit!
他在里面七个小时了
He’s been in there for seven hours.
他怎么上厕所呢
Where does he go to the bathroom?
我听说他崩溃了
I heard he had a breakdown.
他要让基金破罐破摔了
He’s letting the fund tank.
我有个在曼哈顿的朋友说…
My buddy in Manhattan said…
柏利博士的办公室
Dr. Burry’s office.
不是 他比较喜欢别人给他发邮件
No, he actually prefers that you email him.
不好意思
Excuse me.
菲尔兹先生…
Mr. Fields, Mr…
-劳伦斯 -该死
– Hi, Lawrence. – Holy shit!
我们不相信你对宏观经济的
We have no confidence in your ability to identify
判断能力
macroeconomic trends.
你们飞到这里来就跟我说这个 为什么
You flew here to tell me that? Why?
谁都能看出房♥地♥产♥市场出现了泡沫
Anyone can see that there is a real estate bubble.
事实上 谁都没看出来
Actually, no one can see a bubble.
这正是泡沫存在的原因
That’s what makes it a bubble.
他们太蠢了 劳伦斯
That’s dumb, Lawrence.
总是有迹象的
There’s always markers.
房♥贷欺诈的数量
Mortgage fraud has
是2000年的五倍
quintupled since 2000
而人均收入没有提高
and the average take-home pay is flat,
但房♥价却猛涨
but home prices are soaring.
这意味着这些房♥地♥产♥都是负债 而不是资产
That means the homes are debt, not assets.
所以圣何塞的迈克·柏利
So Mike Burry of San Jose, a guy who
这个人在”超级剪刀”理发 从来不♥穿♥鞋
gets his hair cut at Supercuts and doesn’t wear shoes,
比格林斯潘和保尔森懂的还多
knows more than Alan Greenspan and Hank Paulson.
是迈克·柏利博士 没错 我是懂的多
Dr. Mike Burry, yes, he does.
真有趣 真有趣
That’s cute. That’s cute.
你在讽刺我们吗 迈克
Are you being sarcastic with us, Mike?
劳伦斯
Lawrence,
我不会讽刺
I don’t know how to be sarcastic.
我不会开玩笑
I don’t know how to be funny. I don’t know how to
我不擅长与人打交道
work people.
我…
I…
我只擅长跟数字打交道
I just know how to read numbers.
你现在做空的仓位有多少
How big is your short position right now?
只有十三亿
Just $1.3 billion.
溢价呢
And the premiums?
我们每年
Well, we pay, uh,
大概要付八千到九千万
roughly $80 to 90 million
虽然有点高
each year, which is high,
但是我是第一个做这种交易的人
but I was the first to do this trade.
等着瞧吧 肯定会赚回来的
Watch. It will pay.
我可能下手有点早 但是我没做错
I may have been early, but I’m not wrong.
没有区别 根本没有区别 迈克
It’s the same thing. It’s the same thing, Mike!
你管理的基金有差不多5.5亿吧
You’re managing a fund of, what, $555 million?
用不了六年就都没了
In six years, it’ll all be gone.
只在这一项赌注上
On one bet.
不会的 等到2007年第二季度
No, the second quarter
浮动利率开始执行的时候
of ’07 is when the adjustable rates kick in.
违约率就会飞涨
The defaults will skyrocket.
是啊 只有你这么说
Yeah. Says you.
在那之前有多少可以赎回
How much is eligible for withdrawal before they do?
我是说下两个季度
Say, in the next two quarters.
如果你的投资人恐慌了
If your investors panic.
3.2亿吧
$302 million?
我…
I…
我的天哪 迈克
My God, Mike.
没有人会撤资的 那相当于自杀
No one will pull out. That would be suicide.
我是说 今年我已经赔了17%了
I mean, I’m down 17% for the year.
但如果他们相信我 他们确实信我 因为
But if they trust me, and they trust me, because…
没有人相信你 没有人
No one trusts you! No one!
我给投资人们发了几封邮件
I sent several emails to my investors
让他们知道
letting them know that the…
等到2007年第二季度
…the second quarter of ’07 is when our
我们在房♥地♥产♥上的投资就会看到回报了
housing positions show returns and…
我说得非常清楚
I’ve been very clear.
他们会撤资的
People will withdraw their money.
劳伦斯 那样做就太蠢了 我是说
Lawrence, that would be so stupid. I mean, the…
如果基金资本流失过多
If the fund’s capitals drop too much,
掉期就会失效
then the swaps contracts are voided.
银行会拿走全部的抵押物
And then the banks get to keep all of the collateral.
-等一下 -所有的抵押物
– Wait a minute. Wait. – All of it.
合同会自动失效
The contracts are voided?
合同会自动失效
The contracts are voided?
他妈的
Holy shit!
你这个畜生