规则改变（2012）

-那是自然 -那就悲剧了
– Of course he does. – Disaster.
也可能载入史册
Or historic.
-或者载入史册的悲剧 -约翰喜欢他
– Or historic disaster. – John loves him.
这可能是两党联合上的一大壮举
It would be a strong move towards bi-partisanship.
各位 基础选民已经在担心
Guys, the base is already concerned
约翰不是正宗的保守派
that John is not a true conservative.
我不觉得选一个支持堕胎的犹太裔民♥主♥党
Now, I don’t think picking a pro-choice Jewish Democrat
还曾是阿尔·戈尔竞选伙伴
who just happened to be Al Gore’s running mate
能减少这种疑虑
is going to alleviate that concern.
也许我们能让麦凯恩宣誓不连任
Maybe we have McCain make a one-term pledge.
他在某个大型演讲上宣布
He announces in some huge speech that
他和一名民♥主♥党人将联合执政一个任期
he and a Democrat are joining together for one term
以便让两党联合起来
so that the parties can come together
解决国家的重大问题
and solve this country’s greatest problems.
也许 如果宣誓不连任的话
Maybe, with a one-term pledge.
没有比选乔·利伯曼更表明我们国家为先了
Nothing says country first like picking Joe Lieberman.
如果要奏效 就要绝对保密
Well, if it’s gonna work, it has to remain absolutely secret,
一直到党代会才揭晓
right up until the convention.
要是泄漏了 右♥派♥会搞砸一切
If it gets leaked, the right will kill it.
约翰·麦凯恩决定在大会期间
John McCain’s decision to put Joe Lieberman
将乔·利伯曼推上前台
front and center at his convention
让民♥主♥党和共和党都颇感不安
has the unique distinction of unsettling both Democrats and Republicans.
我认为 让他成为
I think the idea of him being
共和党的副总统候选人
the Republican vice presidential nominee
可能导致大会分♥裂♥
would split the convention.
作为内阁成员 没问题 但不能是副总统
In the cabinet, fine. Not as V.P.
糟糕的选择 保守派会疏离本党的
Bad choice. Conservatives will bolt.
麦凯恩和利伯曼的组合太怪异了
Comedy team of McCain and Lieberman.
也就玩玩大西洋城能有希望
Maybe they’ll play Atlantic city this summer.
谢谢
Thank you.
出了什么事
So what the fuck happened?
林赛·格雷厄姆想给这个想法寻求支持
Lindsey Graham was trying to build support for the idea
-结果消息走漏了 -该死的 林赛
– and it leaked. – God damn it, Lindsey.
权当安慰吧
Well, if it’s any consolation,
数据表明 如果你选择了利伯曼
my numbers show that if you pick Lieberman
或者任何支持堕胎的候选人
or any pro-choice candidate,
你40%的核心支持者都可能不再支持你
40% of your core supporters will be less likely to support you.
40%啊
40%.
无党派人士的支持几乎不会增加
And you gain very few independents.
总体来说 各方都不讨好
Overall, it’s a wide-net negative.
我们打了很多电♥话♥ 有些人觉得
We’ve made a lot of calls. Some people don’t even think
利伯曼甚至不会通过大会的同意
Lieberman can make it through the convention.
其他人说 他能当上 但会撕裂党派
Others say, yeah, he can, but he’s gonna rip the party in half.
但乔很完美 我们都是
But Joe is perfect. We’re both mavericks
被党内混♥蛋♥痛恨的异端
that are hated by the assholes in our own parties.
联手能对国家产生巨大的正面作用
It could have a tremendous healing effect on the country.
没有基础选民的支持 我们没法获胜
We can’t win without our base.
选利伯曼是治国良策 但不是获胜之道
Lieberman is the right thing to do, but the wrong way to win.
还审核过谁
Who all have we vetted?
罗姆尼 克里斯特 波仑蒂
Romney, Crist, Pawlenty.
-正在审核彭博 -谁能帮我们赢得竞选呢
– We’re trying to vet Bloomberg. – Who can we win with?
-都不能 -都不能
– None of them. – None of them?
约翰 奥巴马改变了整个竞选基调
John, Obama just changed the entire dynamic.
时代不同了啊
It is a change year, sir.
我们急需改变规则的人选
We desperately need a game-changing pick,
这些中年白人男士可不是什么改变规则的人
and none of these middle-aged white guys are game-changers.
那…怎么办
So…what?
我就自认倒霉 甘愿输掉
I just fuck off and die?
数据显示 我们得做四件事
Well, the data shows we have four things we have to do.
赢回无党派人士的支持
We have to win back the independents,
激起基础选民的热情
we have to excite the base,
和布♥什♥政♥府♥拉开距离
we have to distance ourselves from the Bush administration,
还必须减少女性选民的支持率差距
and we have to close the gender gap.
差距有多大
How bad is the gap?
相当大
It’s fatal.
你的男性支持率领先20个百分点 这很好
You’ve got a 20% advantage with men, which is great,
但女性支持率低了20个百分点
but a 20% deficit with women.
你得在女性选民支持率上提升15个百分点
You’ve got to pick up 15% with females.
如果在这块落后5个百分点以上
Because if you’re trailing by more than five with them,
你就输了
you lose.
那就给我找个女人来
So find me a woman.
女士们 谁会中选呢
All right, ladies. Who’s it gonna be?
梅格·惠特曼支持堕胎
Meg Whitman supports abortion rights.
支持堕胎 支持堕胎
Pro-choice, pro-choice.
-你是谁呢 -这组太阳能电池板
– Who are you? – These solar arrays combined
将为我们提供三千四百万瓦的电力
will allow us to produce 34 megawatts of power…
为保障风险管理成为我们保障…
To make sure that risk management is the best that we can do to secure…
众所周知 奥古斯塔没有收费公路
But as you know, the turnpike ends here in Augusta.
基于这点…
At that point…
她叫什么来着
What was her name?
一旦阿♥拉♥斯加获准 安全可靠地开♥发♥本土资源
Once Alaska is allowed to very responsibly and safely develop our resources,
将能降低全美的能源支出
we’ll lower costs of energy across the United States,
由此能为国家提供
and then we’d be able to secure the nation
洁净的国内能源供应
with a clean, domestic supply of energy.
另外 从我个人的角度
And I say that, Charlie, even personally.
我的独子今年十八岁
My one and only son, my 18-year-old,
刚刚报名参了军
he just signed up for the United States Army.
现在正在新兵训练营
He’s at boot camp right now.
我就想
And I’m thinkin’, you know,
这孩子正竭尽全力
this kid is doing all that he can within his power
保卫国家的安全
to help secure and defend the United States.
每位民选官员都该扪心自问
Every elected official had better be asking themselves,
你们也能做到这样吗
are you doing as much also?
你们倾尽全力了吗
Are you doing all that you can?
她是个明星
She’s a star.
她强烈反对堕胎 因此在四十四岁时
She’s so passionately pro-life that at age 44,
她没有打掉一个
she decided to keep a child
怀孕中期被诊断出有唐氏综合症的孩子
that she knew mid-term had Down’s Syndrome.
还有很多地方 基础选民会喜欢她
And there’s a lot more that the base will love.
她在阿♥拉♥斯加有80%的支持率
She has an 80% approval rating in Alaska.
-全国各州之最 -80%吗
– The highest of any governor in the country– – 80%?
她反对石油游说集团
And she got it by taking on the oil lobby
和共和党当权派 还能有如此支持率
and the Republican establishment.
当地政♥府♥层打算斥资22亿美元打造的大桥
其另一端格拉维纳岛人烟稀少
她否决了绝路桥
She’s the one who killed the bridge to nowhere.
我为了那破桥和泰德·史蒂文斯争论了好几个月
I fought Ted Stevens for months on that stupid fucking bridge.
此外 她是个虔诚的基♥督♥徒
Plus, she is a devout Christian.
她儿子即将入伍前往伊♥拉♥克♥
She’s got a son about to deploy to Iraq,
是个有五个孩子的辣妈
attractive mother of five.
-她喜欢狩猎麋鹿 -狩猎麋鹿吗
– She likes to moose hunt. – Moose hunt?
这女人会拿枪啊 约翰
This is a woman with a gun, John.
基础选民要兴奋得跳起来的
I mean, come on, the base is gonna be doing back flips.
萨尔特怎么看
What does Salter think?
他担心她是个神创论者
Uh, he’s worried that she’s a creationist.
所以基础选民才会喜欢她啊
Yeah, and that’s exactly why the base will love her.
女性会喜欢她
Women will love her.
还有 她让你和布♥什♥的形象拉开距离
Plus, she gives you distance from bush.
更进一步 她如此与众不同
Furthermore, she’s so outside the box
说不定能帮你重塑特立独行的名声
that she helps you recapture the Maverick label,
帮你赢回无党派人士
which will win back independents.
她是完美人选
She’s everything we need.
你不觉得她太与众不同了吗
You don’t think she might be too outside the box?
所以这才是个特立独行的决策啊
Huh. Well, that’s what makes her such a Maverick choice.
选择利伯曼也是
So is picking Lieberman.
那可是相当特立独行
That’d be pretty goddamn mavericky.
先生 这是一个娱乐至死的年代
Sir, we live in the age of YouTube and the 24-hour news cycle.
否则你觉得
How else do you think a man
一个毫无建树的人
who has absolutely no major life accomplishments
是怎么大♥比♥分打败一个美国英雄的
is beating an American hero by double digits?
他只是充分发挥了自己的魅力和明星效应
He’s simply sailing on his charisma and star power.